London Playbook PM: From bad to worse

Good afternoon.
— New economic stats again highlighted the squeeze on the upcoming budget.
— Labour used the numbers to attack the Tories, of course. The Tories were keeping quiet.
— The probation watchdog issued a warning about the hundreds of prisoners set to be released earlier than planned next month.
— A man linked to the site that spread disinformation over the Southport attack has been arrested.
— Scoop: POLITICO has uncovered another Labour hire to the civil service.
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FROM BAD TO WORSE: No wonder Labour “sources” were pitch rolling overnight about tough choices at the upcoming budget — new stats this morning showed the public finances in a dire state.
Indeed: Government spending in the three months from April was £6 billion higher than forecast and marked a record amount of the annual government budget spent in the first third of the financial period. The stats show that 34.1 percent of the annual budget has gone — with the previous record (since comparable records began in 1997) being 32.9 percent in the first third of the financial year. The Beeb has a full writeup.
In human-speak: “This is indicative of the scale of the pressures on departmental budgets — in some cases well and above what was budgeted for,” said Isabel Stockton, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Meanwhile … tax revenues are following or even lagging March forecasts, which alongside the higher spending means higher borrowing. And, lo, borrowing for the period was £5 billion higher than forecast — hitting its highest mark for July since 2021. The numbers are preliminary, but don’t bode well for a new government needing to douse numerous public sector fires.
Rach for the stats: “The early signs are that better-than-expected growth figures won’t be enough to save Rachel Reeves from tough choices in her first budget,” Stockton said, adding that the spending review Reeves will set out alongside the budget in October could be a “particularly difficult exercise.”
Seizing the political ammo with both hands: “We are going to have to get a grip on public spending in the budget and over the months ahead,” Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones told Times Radio this afternoon, adding that tax rises and a crackdown on welfare fraud are being considered. “Today’s figures are yet more proof of the dire inheritance left to us by the previous government,” Jones added in a statement this morning.
The Conservatives said … nothing.
And there’s more: The finances aren’t the sole crisis in government the Labour administration continues to pin on its predecessors.
Jail bod sings: The Chief Inspector of Probation issued a stark warning this morning that the sector could struggle to cope with the hundreds of prisoners set to be released next month in a bid to free up cell spaces. Martin Jones told Radio 4 the service was swamped without the added demand, due to the sudden early release of prisoners under the previous government.
In his own words: “The probation service doesn’t have the probation officers it needs to deliver its core caseload and therefore what you see is probation officers with excessive caseloads,” he said. “There is a limit therefore as to what you can properly do as a result of that.” Clip here.
The pressure is real: “The new government inherited a prison system in crisis, which is putting pressure on the wider justice system particularly probation staff,” a government spokeperson said. Officials flagged plans to recruit more than 1,000 new probation officers by March … although next March is quite different to next month.
Nevertheless: Officials also note the September early release scheme gave probation services a much longer lead time (eight weeks) than the sudden releases under the previous government, including clear dates to work towards.
In better news for the government: Public opinion has swung behind Keir Starmer over his handling of the riots in the wake of the Southport attack. More in Common polling shared with Huffington Post U.K. showed approval of the prime minister’s response soared 11 points since the disorder began, from minus five to plus six. Brits like seeing violent morons locked up, it appears.
Speaking of the Clown Court: A man linked to the site which fueled the violence via misinformation about the Southport attacker has been arrested in Pakistan on suspicion of terrorism, the BBC reported. Police found devices in the home of Farhan Asif with access to social media accounts for Channel3Now — the site which spread a false name for the Southport attacker and a false claim he was an illegal immigrant to the U.K.
In other home affairs news: Former home secretary and Conservative leadership contender James Cleverly attacked government measures announced this morning aimed at tackling illegal immigration. His successor Yvette Cooper said recruiting new crime fighters to take on smuggling gangs and expanding two immigration removal centers were “strong and clear” steps to boost border security.
But but but: In a TV clip this afternoon, Cleverly said the measures were “a pathetic response to a really challenging situation.” He said “their aspirations are too low, their energy is too low.” The clip should be running on the box around now.
JOBS FOR LABOUR CHUMS: POLITICO has unearthed *another* Labour Party staffer handed a job in Britain’s famously politically-neutral civil service. Annie-Rose Peterman has been brought into the No. 10 team after working with Keir Starmer in opposition, two people with knowledge of staffing confirmed to my colleague Vincent Manancourt.
Nice access: Peterman, who previously worked for Labour MP Emily Thornberry, according to HuffPost, replaced a veteran civil servant as diary manager for the PM, according to one of Vincent’s moles. The role may technically be junior, but as diary manager, Peterman has direct access to the Starmer and his whereabouts. 
A note for all the Tories kicking off: David Cameron made a similar move when he made it into government — giving an aide while he was in opposition a civil service diary secretary role. See Lara Moreno-Perez writing emails on behalf of Cameron while LOTO here then given a gong for her work in Downing Street here. 
Hire hire: The latest name comes after Guido revealed Downing Street Chief of Staff Sue Gray had hired former Labour aide Mitchell Burns-Jackson as a Whitehall executive assistant to her private office. The two sources noted above also confirmed this to Vincent. 
Despite the official line: Experts insist the appointment of party loyalists to these junior civil service roles is unusual. A Cabinet Office spokesperson said: “We do not comment on individual staffing appointments. Appointments are made in line with the civil service rules on recruitment.”
Growing scandal: The latest revelations add to mounting questions over the appointment of Labour loyalists to civil service positions. There have been growing calls by senior Tories for the civil service watchdog, the Civil Service Commission, to investigate the appointments after POLITICO first revealed Ian Corfield and Emily Middleton — two people with close affiliations to Labour — were handed top civil service roles. 
And of course … Guido also revealed this week Jess Sargeant made the move from Starmerite think tank Labour Together to Whitehall, to advise on constitutional issues — her area of expertise. Although the Cabinet Office has pointed out she is not the “deputy director of constitution and propriety group.” The term denotes her grade (the lowest rung of the senior civil service grades) but she is not second in command of the group and it is not her job title. Her actual job title still isn’t clear. 
Case for the defense: Speaking on the World at One show this afternoon, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said it was “understandable” Conservatives wanted to make a “political issue” out of these Labour hires to the civil service. But he insisted it was “it’s perfectly appropriate [and] within the rules to appoint people, for example in Mr Corfield’s circumstances, for a fixed period of time to deliver a fixed outcome, by bringing in the skills that were needed and were not currently available in the Treasury to do that.”
SPOOKY COINCIDENCE: The disappearance of tech tycoon Mike Lynch got even weirder when it emerged his business partner Stephen Chamberlain also died, in a car accident at the weekend. Adding to the intrigue are the pair’s business ties to the U.K. and US intelligence worlds. We set out the connections here.
Bear in mind: This is not us going all Nigel Farage “I don’t believe we’re being told the full truth” on this. We’re not quite *that* conspiratorial, honest. And the secret services can’t orchestrate waterspouts, of course.
SPEAKING OF NIGE … WHAT HE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: The i’s Will Hazell has penned a deep dive into the machinations on the right around quitting the European Convention on Human Rights.
HEADLESS UNIONISTS:  In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party has set September 14 as election day for a new leader — and outgoing chief Doug Beattie has ruled out a comeback, my POLITICO colleague Shawn Pogatchnik writes in.
CLICKBAIT OF THE WEEK: The Lib Dems are calling for pop star Taylor Swift to be handed a historic London honor. Details in the Metro here.
TRUMP BEING LESS NARCCISSISTIC, KINDA: As Helen Lewis noted on Twitter, this clip is a rare case of Donald Trump taking an interest in another human being. It happens to be about snorting coke.
TONIGHT IN CHICAGO: Kamala Harris’ running mate Tim Walz is the star attraction at the DNC in the early hours tonight — alongside speeches from Democrat grandees Nancy Pelosi and Bill Clinton. Walz will formally accept the Democratic nomination for vice president this evening as part of his warm-up act speech before Harris herself addresses the final day of the DNC tomorrow. 
And if you missed the Obamas last night … catch up via POLITICO here. 
SICILIAN YACHT LATEST: Reuters report that two bodies have been found in the wreck of tech magnate Mike Lynch’s family yacht. The Guardian is running a live blog.
IN INCEL LAND: Influencer Andrew Tate’s houses were raided by Romanian police Wednesday morning amid new sex trafficking allegations, the BBC reports. Tate was already awaiting trial for rape and human trafficking charges.
HERE’S ONE WAY TO DEAL WITH THE PRESS: A Thai MP slapped a shocked reporter for … doing her job asking questions. Watch the clip here. Be careful out there, comrades.
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: The BBC News at Six leads on the Sicilian yacht latest.
Radio 4 PM: Port of Dover CEO Doug Bannister.
Ben Kentish at Drive (LBC, until 7 p.m.): The TUC’s Kate Bell and Pimlico Plumbers’ Charlie Mullin … Safe Passage International CEO Wanda Wyporska.
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko … Public and Commercial Service Union’s Fran Heathcote … Former Mayor of San Francisco Willie Brown … The Spectator’s Isabel Hardman … me, Emilio Casalicchio. 
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Former Labour spinner Alastair Campbell and former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Substacker Matt Goodwin and journalist Zoe Grunewald.
GB News Tonight (7 p.m.): Former Cabinet ministers Nadine Dorries and Kwasi Kwarteng … Former Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle. 
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News 8 p.m.): Tory MP David Davis … Former Labour official Matthew Laza … The IEA’s Reem Ibrahim.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Broadcaster Jonathan Lis and the Mail on Sunday’s Anna Mikhailova … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Times’ Aubrey Allegretti and the Telegraph’s Annabel Denham.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Green power and regional growth, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and other Cabinet ministers expected to be out and about.
OUR FUTURE OVERLORDS: Kids get their GCSE results. And the government releases the latest stats on young people not in work, education or training at 9.30 a.m.
STATS DUMP: The latest migration stats for between April and June are out at 9.30 a.m.
ACCOUNTS DUMP: The Electoral Commission is due to publish political party accounts tomorrow morning too.
THE TRIALS CONTINUE: More knuckleheads who took part in disorder following the Southport stabbings will appear in court.
THE OTHER LEADERSHIP RACE: Nominations close at noon in the Scottish Conservative leadership contest.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: It’s recess! Make the most of a quieter Westminster with a stroll around to check out the menus.
SUMMER SALE: Tons of political books are going for £5 here.
SIMPLE QUESTIONS PLAYBOOK PM CAN’T GET ANSWERS TO: When will Boris Johnson start producing his paid-per-show GB News content?
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Former Commons clerk Eliot Wilson highlights in the Spectator the dumb claims swirling around the Conservative leadership contest about what “proper Conservatism” is. “It is dangerously divisive because of its implication: if the candidate you support is a ‘proper Conservative,’ then he or she is heir to the party’s greatest successes and heroes,” Wilson writes. “This is the language of religion, of the sect and the schismatic.”
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Aug. 21, 2017 Big Ben chimed for the final time before a four-year restoration project began on its tower.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.
THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporter Andrew McDonald and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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